About the BS Machine
What is this site?
The BS Machine is a data-driven platform for analysing NRL team performance, projecting outcomes, and visualising each team's season trajectory.
How does it work?
The model uses a Bayesian approach to predict the expected score for each match based on the offensive and defensive ratings of the teams involved. After each round, the predicted result is compared to the actual outcome, and the ratings are updated accordingly. This update reflects both offensive and defensive performance, allowing the model to understand not just how strong a team is overall, but whether that strength comes from attack, defence, or both. The result is a dynamic rating system that captures team performance above or below average, split into offensive, defensive, and total rating components.
What data do you use?
Data includes past match results, scoring margins, and season fixtures. No proprietary data is used — everything is derived from publicly available match results and team performance stats.
Limitations
The model doesn't currently explicitly account for injuries, team announcements, or mid-season coaching changes. While accurate in trends, it's not meant to replace expert judgment.
Contact
This project is maintained by BroncosSabres. For questions or suggestions, reach out via Reddit at u/BroncosSabres or via email at broncossabres@gmail.com.